T H E 6 T H F L O O R

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10 vs 12

I will never claim “I know it all” when it comes to fantasy football. I do consider myself “accomplished” and “experienced” when it comes to drafting and managing a team. On the flip side I think I am strong commissioner, knowing the ins and outs of how to successfully run a league. I think our league, which celebrated 28 years this season is a testament to that. Unfortunately I think I failed myself and the other 11 owners this season when I took the reigns of our work league.

For many of those 28 years we were an 8-team league. Early in the 1990s we decided to expand the league and bumped league by 2 teams for a total of 10. This year in our work league as defending champion I was in charge of setting the league up and running it. In most respects I feel I failed.

First off we used ESPN to run our league. Nothing against their league software, it was fairly easy to navigate and set the league up. Unfortunately never running a 12-team league I structured the league as if I were running a 10-team league. While the problems were not initially glaring, as the season wore on it became evident where the break down was.

First off we used the standard 1/10 and 1/25 scoring with 6 points for all TDs and 4 points for TD passes. We drafted 16 rounds, for a total of 192 players. Needless to say by the end of the draft some teams were reaching for players. I suspect a few teams had not done their homework and prepared well enough. Even after the draft the problems weren’t evident.

Once the season kicked off the waiver wire became heavily used. Never being a big fan of the wire, I like teams to be built on trades and the draft. I feel the wire can easily be abused to build your team if you have drafted players that don’t pan out or get injured. With that said, it wasn’t but 8 or 9 years ago we adopted the waiver wire to the league I manage, while not happy with it, many of the owners do like it. The same holds true for the work league I managed this season.

The failure came when I set the league up. If I knew (which I should have) just how thin talent would get on the waiver wire, I probably would have implemented maximum players at each position. No reason for some teams to stockpile 4 QBs and other teams to pack on 6 RBs (even though I was one of those owners). None of these owners were playing “outside of the rules” and were just using them to their advantage. In order to keep some talent on the wire I think the league would have been better off with a maximum of 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 RB, 2 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. This would drop the total draft to 14 rounds or 168 players leaving a well equipped player pool from which to draw from.

These two actions alone would have changed the dynamics of the league as owners would need to make important decisions during the bye weeks to abandon a kicker or D/ST in favor or a starter. I am sure there would have been teams to hold on to their top defense and take a zero, which could result in the loss of considerable points. Kickers, outside of David Akers, who is the top scorer in one of my leagues are only separated by 20 points, positions #2 through #9. Unless scoring were weighted more heavily for kickers, finding a bye week replacement or rotating kickers on a weekly basis won’t make or break your fantasy team.

The last issue was the fact that leagues like Yahoo and ESPN allow a commissioner to “freeze” players draft in the first rounds and not allow them to be dropped. As luck would have it nobody in our league did that, but there were some “questionable” trades made. My policy as a commissioner has always been to approve all trades, figuring owners will want to get the best deal for their team. Unfortunately I don’t know the owners at work as well as the friends I have had in my league for 25+ years. Next year it will come down to each other putting a vote in to veto a trade. That move alone this year would have had repercussions on outcome of the H2H season.

Come next year if I am asked to run my league at work again I will change some of the variable, if not all of them. Hell, I might even make it a decimal scoring system, just to see how well that works. But looking back on this 12-team league it was a learning experience. While no one really cares how I did the dynamics are considerably different when you expand your league from 10 teams to 12 teams.

To Start or Not To Start

I can often be heard saying, “Start your studs” early in the fantasy season (Can I blame Russ for this?). While this moniker might ring true in a majority of the cases there are exceptions. This off season had been very interesting with the CBA negotiations and hold outs, followed by the frenzied free agency period, training camps had started and before we knew it the first week of pre season games were upon us.

Even with the confusion during the off season, our TFL draft date was not change, nor were many others of individuals I spoke to. We are on the even of Week 2 in the NFL and we are finding out a few things after just a single week in the season. First, top defenses. Defenses like that of Green Bay, New Orleans, New York Jets and Pittsburgh didn’t play like the defenses we EXPECTED them to be. The Thursday night opener with the Packers and Saints saw 700+ total yards and 70+ points scored. So much for defense.

Another problem we have faced early has been the playing the studs. Case in point, Chris Johnson, 9-24 in his first game. Now in his defense he did hold out for a new contract, so a decrease in performance was to be expected, but I believe we all expected more than 24 yards. This week he faces a Baltimore defense that shut down Rashard Mendenhall and the Steelers last week. Do you start Chris Johnson?

Injuries. Oh the injuries. Another issue with a shortened training camp period because of the CBA negotiations. We are seeing the “Hammy Hoax” along with an array of the muscular injuries causing players to sit out of practicing putting their status in Week 2 in jeopardy. Injuries are part of the game and are to be expected. In fantasy football, you as an owner need to plan for this during the draft, not afterwards with the waiver wire (but that is a discussion in itself).

It was mentioned in the Fantasy Football Starters Forums that fantasy football is not a marathon, but a sprint. The logic is right, but but I think you can argue the application. As an owner I am not ready to pull the plug on a player after just a few weeks. While many H2H leagues will end after Week 13, this leaves 10-11 weeks to make changes and put some victories together. How long you decide to hold off making changes is YOUR decision. Many ask for opinion and input but don’t anticipate the consequences, you need to man up and take responsibility for your team and the actions YOU are about to take. All I do is provide one opinion, based on what I know, what I read and what I hope will happen.

A good example for Week 2 is KC vs DET. The entire Chiefs team looked awful in a 41-7 thrashing at the hands of Buffalo last weekend. This week it’s Detroit, who has a stout run defense and a secondary that slowed Josh Freeman last weekend. Two common questions we have seen this week, “Do I start Jamaal Charles?” and “Do I start Dwayne Bowe?” I will give you that Charles is a stud RB, as witnessed by his performance in 2010 and back to back 1100+ yard rushing season. Bowe on the other hand had a career season last year, I expect a drop off in his performance this year and with a slow start and the fact that Matt Cassel is playing injured might have me look elsewhere for a starter. In other words I might play the match up for Week 2. This could be the case for Charles as well, depending on who you have for depth at RB. I agree that Charles is a game changer, much like Chris Johnson.

Another comment that sometimes goes unsaid is that you need to have luck in fantasy football. I would much rather be lucky than good over the course of 28 years and win than be good all those year. Maybe I would have won more than I have. You can get as many opinions as you want, discuss and compare players on multiple levels, their match ups and statistics. In the end the decision for the start is yours. If you follow the voices on the forums, then it’s on you. If you go with your gut it’s on your. Basically it’s your call. Hopefully the tools you use, opinions you gain and discussions you are involved in help you start the players who will score you the most points and bring you a victory.

Fantasy League #3 Tonight

Tonight is my third and possibly final fantasy football draft, unless of course the group on the Fantasy Football Starters Forums need a 12th owner. In 28 years of fantasy football I have never played more than 2 leagues. It has only been the past 3 years I have participated in a league outside of the one I have managed since 1983.

I am playing with a group of guys I don’t know well, so I have no idea to what degree they know football. The league commissioner is the friend who invited me and I helped him set the league up. It will be a 12-team Yahoo league, non-standard Yahoo scoring though. We will draft 16 players and start 10: QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/2 FLEX/K/DST.

I have already ranked my players using FFS and am deciding on what strategy I am going to employ. I will probably bring a few with me, including my standard draft strategy, which builds a balanced team with RB/WR/QB in the first three rounds or the more unconventional WR/WR/WR, alternative draft strategy, which I believe I implemented very well in my work league. I discussed this strategy at length a few days ago.

This will also be the first time I participate in a league with more than 10 owners. A 12 team league. That might sound a bit odd considering I have played fantasy football for 28 years now. But it has really been the last year and a half now I have a renewed enthusiasm for fantasy football. 28 seasons can get a bit long in the tooth, so to speak. We have updated rules, added teams, introduced the waiver wire, but it wasn’t until I joined FFS last June, 2010 that I was excited about the upcoming season.

That excitement has carried over to this season, as I am staring at possibly 4 leagues to participate in. Maybe it’s the fact that I am able to share the knowledge and insight I have gained over those years playing fantasy football that makes it fulfilling. I am only 2 years removed as champion in my league, the TFL and based on the draft of last month I have a strong team that should be able to compete and challenge for the trophy.

Regardless of what happens, playing in multiple leagues will allow me to use different strategies and combine players in ways that are outside my comfort zone. I would like to think the draft tonight will be one in which I excel. As mentioned I only know one of the guys real well and his teams last year were not all that competitive. Then again I did not make the playoffs in my league, but ended up blowing out all the owners in my work league.

As with any year I consider it a successful year if I am able to take something new away from a league. This year looks to be interesting since I was able to employ a new draft strategy. I also believe I will be able to compete in both the leagues I have already drafted in. We will soon see.

TFL Draft Weekend

This weekend was our traditional draft weekend in Las Vegas for our fantasy football league now entering its 28th year. Amazing to think there are many who have been involved for all 28 years. It’s always a great time to get together with good friends, shoot the shit, eat and drink and talk football. This year was no different really. Instead of The Palms being our draft HQ, we moved to The Hard Rock Hotel.

I arrived on Friday morning just before 11am and spent $15 to go 2 miles to the hotel. I checked in at the front desk and then checked into the cabana we had rented for Friday as we waited for the other owners to arrive in Las Vegas. Dinner at The N9NES was scheduled for 8pm, as one owner was a bit late because he had to work late. So it was pretty much drinking, drinking and more drinking on Friday. Guess it’s no wonder I ended up feeling bad and having a raging migraine headache when I made my way back to our suite.

I laid down for 45 minutes, but the headache did not subside and made me just miserable at dinner time. We stopped off at the bar for a round of drinks, well water for me and then were shown our table. We place appetizer orders and then ordered out steaks, which averaged about $55-60 bucks Ala carte! I had a great corn chowder and maybe had 3 bites of my 12 oz steak before I had to put the fork and knife down because of the pounding on my head.

We ended up pulling playing cards for our draft positions on Saturday. I pulled the #5 draft pick, but the best moment came down to the final two owners to draw cards. The #1 and #8 spots were remaining. Unfortunately the returning champion got a bit touchy and grabbed one of the cards, but did not look at it. I placed it back where it was supposed to be. The next pick was #1. If he had not touched the cards he would have been the top spot to draft. Maybe that taught him a lesson. Probably not though.

After dinner I made my way to the room and crashed. I think my roommate came in about 4 am did some work and then went to bed. Saturday came at about 630am for me. I got up, cleaned up and went down to eat some oatmeal and drink coffee. Did check FFS and place a few comments on some posts and returned to the room about an hour later. My roommate was up by then and we discussed the draft, players and strategy we would be putting into play at 11am.

We headed out to the pool and found the cabana and got settled in. It took me a few minutes to setup and configure the online draft room at CBS Sportsline. But once I got it online it worked very well, better than last year. We had 2 owners not in the cabana and they participated online from home. Acting as commissioner I was able to select players for all owners who were in attendance, so those not at the cabana would get a feel for who was remaining and who was drafted. Again it worked very well this year with a few minor glitches on my end.

As for the draft I believe this was one of better teams I have put together. It might have been a questionable move in the 1st round at the #5 pick to selection Mike Vick and not Rashard Mendenhall. If Vick can put up numbers comparable to last season and stay healthy, then it will be a very good pick. Mendenhall was a workhorse and would have been a solid pick as well, a legit #1 RB.

Playing 2 QBs as we can do I bet on Vick and ended up scoring Darren McFadden in round 2. By that time 6 QBs were already off the board so I felt I might as well get a solid RB both rushing and receiving and he was the best on the board in round 2. A fleeting thought was a WR, but then I would be chasing a RB in round 3 and I needed a stud in the stable to anchor my RBs.

Round 3 I came back strong with a Hakeem Nicks at WR. I was very surprised he was passed up and many thought I was crazy to take him in the 3rd round. Larry Fitzgerald was the other WR I was considering, but I have my doubts about the desert dwellers, their offensive line and rushing game. Could make for a long year for the Cardinals but Fitz will get his.

Jahvid Best slide to the 4th round and I was excited to get him. He has very little competition in Detroit with Leshoure done for the year, so hopefully he can stay healthy and contribute to a possible high powered offense. The other option in this slot was Shonne Greene, who I had last year and while I expect him to bounce back I could not bring myself to draft him. I figured Best would be more productive catching the ball as well, which tilted the scales in his favor.

I was targeting a WR in Round 5 and was looking at Wallace and Austin but both went off very quickly and had me scrambling for the next best available. It came down to Mike Williams (TB) and Dwayne Bowe. Personally I don’t believe that Bowe comes back to repeat his career year. While TB is an up and coming team I like what Williams did last year. Another year with Freeman and a rushing game in Blount and I thought Williams was a nice pick up in this round.

Probably grabbed a TE too early in Round 6, but Gates had gone off the board in the 2 rounds earlier and with Witten going two picks prior to me, I figured this was my only chance to grab a top TE in Finley of Green Bay. I think it worked out, as Clark was selected right after my pick.

It even got more interesting in Round 7 as I picked Knowshon Moreno. Hopefully Denver comes strong with a run game this season now that Moreno is healthy. Sure he might see some TDs vultured from McGahee and Tebow (if he gets his shot), but he could break 1000 yards if he remains healthy. My other option this round would have Beanie Wells, but again I don’t believe in the Arizona Cardinals this season.

Getting into the “make or break” draft picks, the middle rounds I Began to round out my starting line up and look for depth. I had passed on Manningham earlier because I had Nicks and did not want to start 2 NYG players. Steve Johnson of Buffalo was the best tiered WR on the board and I quickly secured him. Wasn’t really eying another player this round.

While I drafted Brandon Jacobs in the 9th round, I knew he was going to be in an RBBC with Bradshaw. This now gave me two players from the Giants, at this point I was not planning Jacobs starting, but I do like the big kid who has serious potential. We will see if he can stay out of the dog house and contribute this season. I still believe he will be the goal line back, which could yield 7-9 TDs this season.

At this point I had waited a bit to long to draft a second QB. I should have grabbed my #2 a few rounds earlier while there was some better talent left on the board. I had Stafford and Bradford on my list, even Kevin Kolb, but all 3 were drafted by round 9. That left me McNabb, Garrard, Fitzpatrick, Campbell of Sanchez. I drafted Sanchez since I believe they have the best overall team. Sanchez has improved the last 2 years and Rex Ryan claims they are going to throw more this year. Sanchez also started off very well last year. So I am pleased with my backup. At this point I do not know if I will start 2 QBs or not.

Due to off season knee surgery Colston return in New Orleans has been very slow. That seems to open the door for Robert Meachem. I thought this was very good value in the 11th round. The other option I did consider was Malcolm Floyd, but being the San Diego homer I am I passed on him. Rivers is proven, but so is Brees. I thought Meachem would fair better this season.

Traditionally I have been a big fan of the placekicker. But each year I wait longer and longer to draft one. This year the run on the position started in the 13th round and while I was targeting Gostkowski I ended up draft “Sea Bass” the overweight, bald, Sebastian Janikowski of the silver and black. He can hit some bombs and was one of the best last year.

Using the knowledge gained on FFS I started pulling out those “sleeper” picks. Starting with round 14th I picked up Danny Amendola of STL. While we don’t play PPR, I still think he could he a nice 4th WR or a bye week cover for me. The other player one the board at this time was Lee Evans, but he burned me last year when I drafted him and I like what Amendola did last year with Bradford an up and coming QB.

I drafted my first rookie in round 15, Roy Helu (Nebraska) of the Redskins. Who knows what Shanny is going to do with the RB situation. While Hightower is the current starter, Helu could possibly see some time. Torain is a bit injury prone and Helu has the skills to give Hightower a run. I did consider Delone Carter but everything I was reading said Addai was going to be the full time RB, so I passed on Carter.

Another fantasy sleeper I picked up at FFS was Emmanuel Sanders, who I drafted in the 16th round. I had Steve Breaston tagged, but he was drafted just prior to my selection. Sanders was picked up for the later part of the season. Not sure how much time he will see early on as he is still returning from an injury. I like what he offers and hopefully he contributes at some point.

While not a popular choice, I reserved the final two rounds (17 & 18) for my back up tight end and kicker. I know many do not consider carrying two at each position, opting for additional depth at RB and WR, sometimes QBs. Personally, I don’t want to play a hole at either position, nor do I want to spend a needless $10 to pick up a bye week cover for either position. In the 17th round I took Brandon Pettigrew. Possibly listed as a low #1 TE by some sites and IF Stafford can remain healthy, I like what Pettigrew brings to the Detroit offense. My last selection was Jay Feely of Arizona. Right now I will use him as a bye week cover as well, unless I decide to play 2 kickers. Feely has been known to launch some long field goals, which could yield me big points. If the Arizona offense stalls outside of 20 yards I can see good points from Feely.

This year I did not follow Russ Bliss’s Draft Strategy, as I did last year. Right out of the box with a QB was not really how I wanted to start, but I did remain flexible and had to modify my strategy as I went forward. Overall I feel real good about my team. I do have some question marked players, like Vick, McFadden and Best, all of whom lost time to injury last year. Still with those players I am hoping to have a good run this season and hopefully not throwing the towel in by Week 10 like I did last year.

Why I’ll Win Fantasy Football

I am excited about the upcoming fantasy football season, now that the lock is over and both sides came to terms on a CBA we are moving rapidly towards the August 11 start date. While this is my 28th year managing the TFL, the Toumi Football League, it’s my second season using Fantasy Football Starters, which boasts the nationally syndicated radio host and anaylst, Russ Bliss.

I am in no way affiliated with RSGFS or FFS (outside of being a moderator on the forums), I am just like the next fantasy owner, looking to get an advantage or edge over my competition in the two leagues I play in. This year has already started out differently than last year, as I was provided a copy of ‘How to Win at Fantasy Football: Secrets of Gridiron Greatness‘ by Russ Bliss. I received this eBook when I signed up with the Championship Package at FFS for $24.95.

I know a lot about fantasy football, 28 years of experience is a wonderful thing to have when you bring opinions and information to forums and share insight with other owners. I must say I was highly impressed with the eBook overall. While some areas did not really pertain to me, for example Chapter 1 on setting up a league. For the most part I read every other chapter (except Chapter 7 on Auctions) and I must say I learned quite a bit of new information. Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks?

There are some new guides I will be using this year that Russ brought to light last year. One is called FP/PG or Fantasy Points Per Game. This stats takes information from NFL.com and incorporates it into a formula to provide a better value of what a given defense gives up in terms of fantasy points. It’s sheer genius and so simple of a concept to understand and implement on a weekly basis. Of course it will take a few weeks (4-6) weeks of data in the upcoming season to truly get a sense of how stingy or loose a defense is.

Another factor that either I missed or never realized was out there is called VDB of Value Based Drafting. Behind this strategy is a concept called the Average Value Theory that uses the “average fantasy point s scored at each rank within a position” (source Russ Bliss). Much like FP/PG the AVT and VDB are simple yet accurate enough to provide you an edge when it comes to drafting your team.

This year I plan on using my strategy I have developed over the years. It’s not all that impressive and you can read just how I used it last year, when I decided to take the challenge and use Russ Bliss’s Draft Strategy. Unfortunately I made a vital mistake in the 3rd and 4th round that cost me the season when I threw the towel in at Week 10.

With every new season comes a chance at redemption, when an owner looks to draft as smart as possible making every draft pick count. Now that I am a year smarter and armed with new information I can immediately take advantage of I am looking to win both leagues I play in this year. As I mentioned my strategy as the draft approaches (Aug 19) is much the same it has been over the better part of 10 years. While I don’t win every year it is a proven strategy to keep me in contention. This year with the use of new tools I plan on setting the bar and have all other teams looking up at me.