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Norv, AJ & the NFL

Sometimes it’s quick surprising when I explain to people during the NFL season I have been participating in fantasy football for 28 years. My fantasy league, the TFL will ring in year 29 with the kickoff of the 2012-2013 NFL season. Unfortunately, I could care less. Thankfully fantasy football will fulfill my desire to gamble on the season with friends I grew up with over the years. While we have moved our different directions, fantasy football brings us together every year.

But this post isn’t about the rekindling of friendships and reminiscing about years gone by. This year isn’t about no supporting my team, the San Diego Chargers. While I won’t give up fantasy football, I really didn’t put much effort into until I found Fantasy Football Starters, hosted by Russ Bliss. I am not here to promote Russ or FFS, it’s the fantasy service I have used for the past two years and really like what they offer. This also reignited my interest in the NFL when I signed up with their service.

Unfortunately the 2011-2012 season, both for the Chargers and my fantasy football teams were a disaster. The fantasy team I take full responsibility for their failure, adding in injury and some players who just never broke out of their rut and performed. The Chargers though…failure, starting with ownership, down to the GM, head coach and some of the key players who seem to talk a big game, but rarely put one of those performances together. Vincent Jackson, you listening?

Add to that the bounty program offered to Saints defensive players. This on top of other notable scandals, such as the 2003 Spygate involving the New England Patriots videotaping opponent’s defensive signals. It’s not limited to teams, but individual players caught in a negative light also seem to shine bright during the NFL season. ” Actions of Adam “Pacman” Jones, Terry “Tank” Johnson, Chris Henry, and Ben Roethlisberger that subsequently got them suspended” (source).

So for the upcoming NFL season I pledge allegiance to team. I have given up on the San Diego Chargers until ownership gets rid of a two pronged problem, AJ Smith and Norv Turner. Both have been terrible for the Chargers. The “Lord of No Rings” continues his tradition of mediocrity in San Diego. To his credit he has made some worthwhile moves, but those have been overshadowed by questionable decisions that have set the franchise back. For example, drafting Eli Manning in the 2004 NFL Draft, when he (well his father) declared he wouldn’t play for the Chargers. In defense of that move, we did get Philip Rivers, Nate Kaeding and Shawne Merriman with the draft picks that were included in the trade that send Manning to the Giants.

The departure of Drew Brees after suffering an injury in the 2005 season finale was a surprise to many in San Diego. Smith refused to sign Brees to a long term contract or tag him as a franchise player and he eventually went into free agency. The rest is history. Michael Turner was drafted in the 5th round of the 2004 draft, but playing behind LT, he didn’t see much time. Turner signed a one year tender in 2007 and became a restricted free agent. The following year Atlanta signed him to a  $34.5 million contract. The rest is history.

Finally, the worst move of his tenure as the GM in San Diego was the departure of Marty Schottenheimer as head coach after a 14-2 season, which resulted in a 3 point loss to the New England Patriots in the playoffs. This issue was fueled more my owner, Alex Spanos, but since Marty wasn’t “AJ’s guy” it was evident the writing was on the wall. Still 14-2 on the season, what a shitty way to do a head coach. On top of that both the offensive and defensive coordinators departed for head coaching jobs. Yet more rebuilding in San Diego.

So while I am a San Diego guy, I just can come to support the Chargers or the NFL in the 2012-2013 season. Between the irresponsible players and coaches coupled with poor management of my favorite team I am done with the NFL. I will still play fantasy football and lobby my support for a player’s performance rather than what team wins or loses. I don’t care.

I have gone through a similar situation previously, but it was the interaction and enjoyment I had using Fantasy Football Starters that got my interest reignited. So for the upcoming season I will still follow player and teams for the benefit of having and sharing knowledge as it relates to fantasy football. As for the NFL season, I could care less as it will make no difference who wins, who loses or how the Chargers do.

2011 Watch List #6

I have never been a big waiver wire user, unlike some owners in the league I manage. I subscribe to the theory of building your team in the draft, not buying your championship through wire transactions. My opinion is not as strong as it used to be, thanks in part to FFS and being a “wire whore,” so to speak in two of the three leagues I play in. Those leagues do not charge, like my league does ($10) to make a move.

For the most part finding a Hillis or Vick, like many owners did last year is the exception on the wire, not the norm. Depending on your league specific, such as roster size, number of teams and scoring some of these players may or may not be available. This season there have been a few “hits” when it comes to the wire. For example, Eric Decker and David Nelson have been two of the better scoring acquisitions.

Now that the BYE weeks have started owners tend to scramble to fill players who are not playing that week. That is where this list can come in useful if you did not draft with BYE weeks in mind

WIDE RECEIVER
Victor Cruz NYG
Okay, I will give Cruz his due credit after putting up solid numbers the past 3 weeks (17-369-3 TD) as the #3 WR in the Giants offense.  Nicks and  Manningham are still the top WRs for the Giants, but Cruz continues to be heavily targets by Manning, including 11 on Sunday. Chances are he might not be available in your league, but he is one to grab for the season. Week 6 the Giants host Buffalo.

Doug Baldwin SEA
The change at QB to Charlie Whitehurst seemed to be the catalyst for Baldwin this week as he was targeted 6 times in the second half, making good on a 27-yard TD pass. This is the second week in a row Baldwin has led the Seahawks in receiving with injuries and ineffective play by the rest of the receiving corp, Baldwin might be a WR to watch, especially if the Hawks roll with Whitehurst. SEA is on a BYE in week 6.

Darius Heyward-Bey OAK (7-99-1 TD)
I am not a big Raiders supporter outside of McFadden. The passing game is questionable, at best with Campbell at QB, but there is a good chance Heyward-Bey is available (owned in less than 5% of CBS leagues). Injury set him back for a few weeks, but he is healthy and has put two back to back weeks to turn heads. He is the top targeted WR (29) in the Oakland offense and could keep the good weeks rolling vs CLE in week 6.

Jerome Simspon CIN (4-40)
While is hasn’t put much together outside of his week 2 performance (4-136) Simpson continues to get some good target numbers from Dalton, 32 targets over 5 weeks. He had 7 targets this past Sunday and you would feel it’s a matter of time before he can put everything together. Just remember he is the third option in the passing game behind Green and Gresham.

Early Doucet ARI (8-92)
Doucet might be a higher consideration if the passing was more consistent in Arizona. Larry Fitzgerald is the uncontested #1, but it’s been Early who has put up some good numbers to start opposite of him. This is his second good game of the season going 8-92. He has been targeted 38 times by Kolb, compared to 42 for Fitz.  Playing from behind, if the passing game gets going this year, Doucet could benefit. Arizona is on a bye in week 6.

Damian Williams TEN (6-66-1)
I mentioned him (and Hawkins) last week as a possible acquisition after the loss of Britt. He had 1 reception last week for a 4-yard TD and this week he extends that scoring streak to 2 games and adds 66 yards. He was the targeted 11 times by Hasselbeck, 3 more than Nate Washington. He looks to be the Titans #2 WR.

James Jones GBP (5-140-1 TD)
Consider Jones a good option to help cover players on their BYE week. He put up season high numbers versus the ATL on Sunday as he only had 9-88 entering week 5. Look for Jones to be the #3 WR in a three wide out set for the Packers. He could see an increase in playing time IF one of the other WRs go down. Green Bay plays STL in week 6.

RUNNING BACK

Jackie Battle KCC (19-119)
With the running game still in disarray it was little used, Jackie Battle putting on a ground pounding performance against Indy. Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster have been ineffective in the backfield for the Chiefs who have now won 2 in a row. Battle could be the spark the Chiefs needs to replace Charles who was lost for the year with an ACL. Watch for Battle to grab more playing time.

Delone Carter IND (12-22-1 TD, 2-12)
Carter should have been a HC for owners who drafted Addai in their league, if not and he is he might be worth a pick up now that Addai left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. Carter scored his first NFL TD on a short 3-yard run as Addai’s replacement. Week 6 has the Colts playing a tough Cincinnati defense, if Addai cannot go, Carter will start.

Jacob Hester SDC (11-47, 2-13)
With injuries to both Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert, San Diego might turn to their backup fullback, Hester who would finish the game vs Denver in place of Tolbert. It’s a situation to watch in San Diego as they have a BYE in week 6. Chances are both Mathews and Tolbert will be able to go, but Hester could have value down the road.

TIGHT END

Joel Dreessen HOU (5-112-1 TD)
With Andre Johnson for a few weeks, Matt Schaub has turned to Foster and his tight ends to pick up the void in the passing game. This week Joel Dreessen was the beneficiary as he scored on a 56-yard TD pass from Schaub. He was pretty much an irrelevant fantasy player through 4 weeks, but could be slotted as a BYE week cover or until AJ returns to the lineup. HOU plays at BAL in week 6.

Notables: Jonathan Dwyer PIT RB, Brandon Pettigrew DET TE

Week 5:
WR: Lavelle Hawkins TEN, Damian Williams TEN, Laurent Robinson DAL, Josh Morgan SFO, Victor Cruz NYG, Doug Baldwin SEA, Jacoby Jones HOU
TE: None
RB: Issac Redman PIT, Mewelde Moore PIT, Ryan Torain, Stevan Ridley
QB: Andy Dalton CIN

Notables:

Week 4:
WR: Victor Cruz NYG, Torrey Smith BAL, Nate Washington TEN, Donald Jones BUF
TE: None
RB: Kendall Hunter SFO, Bernard Scott CIN, Daniel Thomas MIA, Alfonso Smith ARI
Notables: James Casey TE HOU

Week 3:
WR: Nate Washington TEN, David Nelson BUF, Eric Decker DEN
TE: Scott Chandler BUF, Evan Moore CLE, Fred Davis WAS
RB: Roy Helu WAS, Thomas Jones KCC, Dexter McCluster KCC
Notables: Preston Parker, WR TBB, Antonio Brown, WR PIT, Titus Young, WR DET, Brandon LaFell, WR CAR

Week 2:
WR: Randal Cobb GBP, Early Doucet ARI, Ted Ginn SFO, Eric Decker DEN
TE: Ben Watson CLE, Evan Moore CLE, Fred Davis WAS
RB: Darren Sproles NOS, Marcel Reece OAK, Carnell Williams STL
Notables: Jason Avant WR PHI, David Nelson WR BUF, Jacoby Ford WR OAK, Brian Hartline WR MIA

Week 1:
WR: Eric Decker DEN, Antonio Brown PIT, Brian Robiskie CLE
TE: None
RB: Delone Carter IND, Roy Helu WAS, Deji Karim JAX
Notables: Kendall Hunter RB SFO, DeMarco Murray RB DAL, Stevan Ridley RB NEP, Jerome Harrison RB DET, Greg Little RB CLE, Jerome Simpson RBCIN, Dezmon Briscoe WR TBB, Denario Alexander WR STL

A Tale of 3 Teams

This is my 28th year of fantasy football, but the first time I have participated in three leagues (CBS Sportsline, ESPN and Yahoo). It was only 2 years ago I decided to start participating in a league at work, until then I was moving through the fantasy world with blinders on, so to speak. I have said it countless times on here and at the Fantasy Football Starters Forums, but since subscribing to the Championship Package, I feel I have gained an new insight into fantasy football and yes, after 27 years have learned new things.

This year I am strong in two of the three leagues. At work (ESPN) I have just won 3 games in a row and now sit at 3-1, on top in my division and 7th overall in total points (12-team league). The newest league was set up by a friend at Yahoo, while I had to draft over the Internet I am currently undefeated at 4-0, ranked 3rd overall in total points (12-team league). Finally, the league I manage, my team is struggling at 1-3, last place in my division, but 5th overall in total points (10-team league).

The Yahoo team has faced the most adversity, as I drafted Peyton Manning, Kenny Britt and Antonio Gates. Currently Manning and Britt are lost for the year and things are not looking good for Gates. I do believe this team is a testament to a strong draft, but smart moves, 12 waiver claims and 11 free agent transactions, second only to another team with 24 total moves. Up until participating in my work league I did not really use a waiver wire on a regular basis. Coming from the “old school” I felt a drafted team could compete without needing to hit the wire like a drunken sailor. I have changed my tune now.

While I still place a big emphasis on the draft, the moves I have made did not impact me as much as I thought. Eric Decker was picked up week 1, but not played until week 2. Last week I picked up Dan Bailey (K DAL) and Chicago D/ST. We will see how the additions of Matt Hasselbeck, Nate Washington, Issac Redman and Dexter McCluster as we enter the BYE weeks. Anything less than a championship in this league will be a disappointment.

Yahoo Team – Throwball Heroes
QB: Fitzpatrick, Hasselbeck
RB: Best, Rice, Moreno, McCluster, Redman
WR: Decker, Washington, Meachem, Nicks, Amendola
TE: Gates, Gronkowski
K: Bailey
DST: Chicago

At work (ESPN league) I drafted using an alternate strategy, drafting WR/WR/WR/TE/QB before drafting a RB. While I did lose my first game (by 17 points) I have come back strong winning the last 3 to pull into a tie for first place at 3-1. As the defending champion I have to live up to the expectations of last year, so this strategy I felt I could get away with. Unfortunately I lost Miles Austin for a few weeks and Antonio Gates, both who were vital top 4 draft picks have left me a bit thin.

While I have been adding and dropping players, it’s been more speculation than anything else. I picked up and just today dropped Steve Slaton for the Titans DST. I added Stevan Ridley as a possible future play to help strengthen a “weak” (Addai & Wells) RB duo. I also picked up Bernard Scott, anticipating Cedric Benson’s suspension, which hasn’t panned out yet, so I ended up parting ways with him for Jared Cook to help cover my TE bye week. I still feel very good about repeating as champion, even using an alternative draft strategy.

ESPN Team – Throwball Heroes
QB: Roethlisberger, A. Smith
RB: Addai, Wells, Ridley
WR: Nicks, White, Austin, Decker, Meachem
TE: Gates, Cook, Watson
K: Janikowski
DST: Titans, Steelers

Finally my league, the TFL where just 2 years ago I was the champion, but after 4 weeks I am 1-3 and wondering what I need to do in order to win. This league we can start 2 QB on a weekly basis, which meant by round 2 most of the top QBs were drafted. It’s no surprise that teams with 2 good QBs are being carried by this position, not the RB position. I was not as fortunate when I drafted opting not to grab a second QB sooner. So far 2 games have been good for Sanchez, but when he is bad, he is not worth a fantasy start.

Of the three drafts I participated in, I felt this was my strongest team. I had good depth at RB and WR and actually drafted smart. Maybe Sanchez wasn’t smart, but at the time he was the best available player. Still 118, 127, 151 and 121 are all good point totals, but only week 2 was it good enough to best my opponent. Logic would say drop Sanchez for another starting QB. The only name available, Curtis Painter, I don’t see him as an upgrade. The only waiver claim to date was drop Javon Ringer for Eric Decker. With Danny Amendola most likely done for the year I will be looking to add depth at RB or WR. If I want to buy into the Victor Cruz hype I can add him for $10.

I don’t feel the wire is where I need to look though past Amendola. I am not fond of tossing $10 (or more using an FAAB system) speculating on players. Unfortunately the performance of individual players are completely out of my control. I could look at packaging a RB/WR for a QB upgrade, but it would decrease my depth at those positions. Maybe with the BYE weeks starting I will be able to buy a break and cut into the lead of the top three point leaders in our league. It could just be a string of bad luck, since that is a component of fantasy football that is often overlooked since we can’t control it.

CBS Sportsline Team – AWOL
QB: Sanchez, Vick
RB: Best, Jacobs, McFadden, Moreno, Helu, Moreno
WR: S. Johnson, Decker, Nicks, Meachem, Sanders, Williams (TB), Amendola
TE: Finley, Pettigrew
K: Janikowski, Feely

Regardless of how I look at it I still feel I am having a good year overall in fantasy football. Currently 8-4 combined in all three leagues, but even the 1-3 league isn’t a bad team, just some back breaks and running into some hot teams early. Of the three leagues, the CBS league has the most work to do, but really there are not many moves I am looking to make. Hopefully things turn around and I start seeing more wins to offset the hole I have myself in.

The Sproles Effect

The Sproles EffectIt seems to happen early in fantasy football every year. A lower tiered player comes to the forefront who was not necessarily expected to outperform star players. Unfortunately, no matter how good you are at predicting statistics, providing advice to other owners or making decision based on fantasy tools you use, the biggest part you have no control over is luck.

We have read and heard Russ Bliss discuss this factor previously. Last night Saints running back, Darren Sproles scored 2 TDs and had 7 receptions for 75 yards. If asked would I start Sproles chance are pretty high I would have said no on many accounts. Why? Simple. He was one of three running backs in an RBBC for Sean Peyton. Preseason did not give us a good read on how each of these backs would be used. Knowing Sproles from watching him for years in San Diego, Peyton used him exactly how Norv Turner used him. Sproles, along with returning kicks, was used as a receiving back out of the backfield. On Thursday he happened to capitalize on his ability to catch and run.

On a similar note, rookie, Randall Cobb of Green Bay scored twice, including a 108-yard TD return and a TD pass from Aaron Rodgers. He finished with 2-35 yards and 2 TDs. Should he have been considered a start? Nope, not with the weapons the Packers have, there should have been no thought of even having him on your fantasy roster.

The morning after, we now have fantasy owners bum rushing the waiver wire to pick up Darren Sproles (if he wasn’t drafted in your league) as well as Randall Cobb because of a single game performance. As FFS moderator James stated, “Do you think Sproles has a 41 point production week left in him the rest of the year?” The last time Sproles had 2 TDs in a game was against 2009 against Denver in Week 5 in which one was a kick return, the other a TD reception. In Week 2 of that same year He had 7-124 yards, 1 TD. Again, he was not a real fantasy option for many owners.

Another comment I subscribe to. The fantasy football season is a marathon, not a sprint. Don’t buy into early season hype or performance based on a single game. If you do, you could end up chasing hot players all season long, while possibly ignore talent you have on your bench. While it was great to see Sproles do well reunited with Drew Brees and amazing to see the talent Randall Cobb bought to the Packers I have neither on a watch list after just a single game. Great performances that added to the Saints/Packers shoot out, but after a single game I am not ready to start sprinting.

Injuries: Act Now or Pay Later

In reviewing and rating fantasy football teams over on the Fantasy Football Starters Forums I am in awe at the number of owners who failed to draft players to occupy a back up role. It’s difficult to make a generalization about a given fantasy league. So far this year I have drafted three separate teams, two drafts have been 16 rounds and select 9 starters. The other league (TFL, which I own and manage) we draft 18 and play 10 starters. I would venture a guess that these numbers are probably pretty standard through the hobby.

Many owner draft depth in the middle rounds, stockpiling running backs and wide receivers, for good reason to. As happens many times players get injured or just don’t perform and as an owner you are left with a decision. Many owners that I have spoke with will typically draft one kicker and one defense, including your remaining starters that’s a total of 9 players, leaving you with 7 bench spots to draft.

Typically you will draft a back up QB, because the last place you want to be is in the heat of the playoffs scrambling for a free agent when your #1 QB, Aaron Rodgers goes down. Think it won’t happen? It did last year. Today in a thread with calinucrew_119705, he questioned picking up a back up QB, “why do i need a back up qb is there any 2nd qb i would start over rivers?” He went on to add, “i have a safe game plan most of my player are bye week 6 so i lose one week i am ok with that also i picked rivers because he has not missed a game since 2006.” That is a very bold move in my opinion, so you are giving up drafting a back up and going to take a zero for one week. Okay, I can understand that…sort of. Bu what if Rivers gets injured? This is the NFL, they hit. Hard, it can happen. Even with limited bench space a back up QB is a vital component to a fantasy team. This leaves a total of 6 spots for depth at RB and WR.

Even before the NFL season has officially kicked off we are already seeing a rash of injuries, led by the “hammy hoax” as I dub it, as well a number of season ending ACL injuries. The most notable injury is that of Arian Foster (hamstring) and Peyton Manning (neck). Both players have seen a bit of a drop in many fantasy drafts because of their injuries. This doesn’t mean you pass on them altogether, it means you might be able to get very good value a bit later than expected. For example at 3.03 in my Yahoo league I was able to draft Manning, knowing he might not start the season. That is a chance I am willing to take. There was no way I was going to pass on a perennial first rounder, but I knew I would need another QB, not only for the bye week cover but on the possibility Peyton Manning doesn’t play in the first week of the NFL season.

The lock out and CBA negotiations, free agency and training camp were fast and furious this off season. This means players might not be completely ready when the NFL season kicks off on September 11. It a typical season it take players a few weeks to get up to “game speed” but now with a drastic reduction in training and practice, injuries are a bigger concern. As mentioned previously, owners are scrambling for Derrick Ward and Ben Tate in Houston with some question surround the severity of the hamstring injury to Arian Foster. Take Chris Johnson, he held out for a new contract. He now has just about a week to get into “game shape” and get up to speed. Will it happen? Probably not. While he is a “professional” it will still take time. Add to that a new QB in Matt Hasselbeck under center. My concern for CJ2K, possibly injury, something along the lines of a hamstring.

So while we don’t like “wasting” our selection on bench players such as kickers and tight ends, these players are an integral part of your fantasy team. Only you are left to decide how you are going to round out those 7-9 selections. In recent years WRs have been rather plentiful through free agency (again depending on league size), but it’s the proverbial “diamonds in the rough” we are draft and speculating on for later in the season. Some of these players may or may not make a contribution, just give it a second thought before you decide to use the wire as your alternative to drafting a competent back up when you have the chance during a fantasy draft.